Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.475485 1.672807 1.882592 2.121789 2.386508 2.670041 2.996229
2024-12-29 1.261193 1.539865 1.854634 2.234805 2.679720 3.182057 3.790182
2025-01-05 1.018563 1.337117 1.718629 2.205285 2.805235 3.516079 4.417003
2025-01-12 0.844394 1.190387 1.629038 2.218545 2.981643 3.926924 5.175982
2025-01-19 0.693164 1.050207 1.529373 2.207168 3.126872 4.315347 5.948334
2025-01-26 0.599453 0.972974 1.501941 2.286634 3.398232 4.890438 7.013276
2025-02-02 0.514887 0.895497 1.464026 2.347482 3.651866 5.467259 8.135403
2025-02-09 0.435943 0.813321 1.408034 2.375555 3.862785 6.005758 9.254437
2025-02-16 0.371613 0.743339 1.360751 2.410700 4.087745 6.584400 10.479944
2025-02-23 0.303800 0.654457 1.269944 2.365699 4.185730 6.985840 11.482323
2025-03-02 0.241360 0.562305 1.159032 2.272510 4.196579 7.255585 12.309479
2025-03-09 0.203649 0.510022 1.110336 2.278728 4.369548 7.790512 13.583353
2025-03-16 0.166905 0.453024 1.046897 2.256630 4.503707 8.293423 14.878111
2025-03-23 0.146391 0.427094 1.040206 2.339728 4.832329 9.145986 16.805830
2025-03-30 0.117099 0.372495 0.964958 2.280062 4.897232 9.561174 18.048505
2025-04-06 0.096720 0.334328 0.917840 2.269976 5.053489 10.147807 19.625460
2025-04-13 0.078709 0.296768 0.864622 2.239080 5.166032 10.666155 21.123495
2025-04-20 0.068729 0.279339 0.855867 2.303265 5.473321 11.560856 23.341962
2025-04-27 0.059383 0.260755 0.840667 2.350875 5.751901 12.423775 25.561352
2025-05-04 0.050231 0.239432 0.813948 2.367711 5.967675 13.183929 27.643196
2025-05-11 0.042807 0.221335 0.792227 2.393394 6.205007 14.003044 29.885947
2025-05-18 0.034378 0.195519 0.742450 2.341109 6.264258 14.475031 31.504465
2025-05-25 0.026478 0.167606 0.679113 2.242753 6.207085 14.706838 32.676016